1- Lorestan University , aliasghar.abdeshahi@gmail.com
2- Social Security Organization
2- Social Security Organization
Abstract: (12 Views)
Purpose: This study investigates the nonlinear impact of three institutional–developmental indicators e-government development, human development, and governance effectiveness on Iran’s GDP during the period 2010–2024. The main objective is to determine not only their individual effects but also their optimal combinations for enhancing sustainable economic growth.
Methodology/Approach: The research is quantitative and applied, relying on global secondary data. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was employed to analyze linear, quadratic, and interaction effects among the variables. This approach allows for the construction of second-order models and the identification of optimal policy points, which conventional linear econometric models often fail to capture.
Findings: The results show that e-government development exerts the strongest and most significant positive influence on GDP growth, highlighting its central role in economic performance. Governance effectiveness also demonstrates a positive and accelerating relationship, confirming that improvements in institutional quality drive stronger economic expansion. By contrast, human development exerts a positive effect at lower levels but encounters diminishing returns beyond a threshold, indicating a “saturation effect” that may reduce efficiency in resource-constrained contexts.
Originality/Value: For the first time in Iran, this study applies RSM to model nonlinear institutional effects on GDP, offering an innovative framework for data-driven policy analysis. By integrating three key institutional variables, it advances beyond conventional linear approaches and identifies optimal trajectories for policymaking.
Recommendations: Policymakers should prioritize strengthening e-government and improving governance effectiveness. Moreover, human development strategies should be designed with attention to marginal returns to ensure long-term efficiency and sustainable growth.
Methodology/Approach: The research is quantitative and applied, relying on global secondary data. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was employed to analyze linear, quadratic, and interaction effects among the variables. This approach allows for the construction of second-order models and the identification of optimal policy points, which conventional linear econometric models often fail to capture.
Findings: The results show that e-government development exerts the strongest and most significant positive influence on GDP growth, highlighting its central role in economic performance. Governance effectiveness also demonstrates a positive and accelerating relationship, confirming that improvements in institutional quality drive stronger economic expansion. By contrast, human development exerts a positive effect at lower levels but encounters diminishing returns beyond a threshold, indicating a “saturation effect” that may reduce efficiency in resource-constrained contexts.
Originality/Value: For the first time in Iran, this study applies RSM to model nonlinear institutional effects on GDP, offering an innovative framework for data-driven policy analysis. By integrating three key institutional variables, it advances beyond conventional linear approaches and identifies optimal trajectories for policymaking.
Recommendations: Policymakers should prioritize strengthening e-government and improving governance effectiveness. Moreover, human development strategies should be designed with attention to marginal returns to ensure long-term efficiency and sustainable growth.
Keywords: E-government, Governance effectiveness, Human development, Economic growth, Response Surface Methodology, Economic policymaking.
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. |
